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Can macroprudential policies curb house price booms? International evidence
Šváb, Ondřej ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This thesis examines the effectiveness of macroprudential policies on reducing housing price growth in the international database of 56 countries with the use of GMM and fixed effects between 2000 and 2017. The macroprudential index is added to the dynamic panel data model where the housing price index is regressed on housing price determinants as the economic growth or unemployment rate. The analysis is also conducted on the sample of countries with a higher market share of owners with a mortgage as there is a higher opportunity to control the housing market through the credit channel. Nevertheless, results show that we do not have enough evidence to state that macroprudential policies curb house price booms. Contrarily, the effect seems to work in the opposite direction which is probably caused by a reverse causality between the growth of real estate prices and the implementation of macroprudential tools. The debt-to-income restriction is the only tool that decreases housing price growth according to the fixed effects model. Detailed counterfactual analysis of the Czech market proposes only a slight impact of the loan-to-value measure on the apartment price development according to one out of four predictions. 1
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Macro-prudential policy and banks' cross-border capital flows
Rabinovich, Ilia ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Teplý, Petr (referee)
This thesis analyzes spillover effects of prudential policies on cross-border capital flows in the period from 2000 until 2014 for 64 countries. It estimates the size of the effect, which 9 most common prudential policy tools had on capital flows based on BIS LBS. The findings show spillover effect of general capital requirements and consumer credit capital requirements on the cross-border capital flows. This work provides analysis of spillover effects in several groups of countries with special accent on CEE countries. JEL Classification F32, F34, G21 Keywords Macroprudential policies; Prudential and supervisory measures; Cross-border banking flows; Leakages; Regulatory arbitrage; CEE Author's e-mail ilyshar@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail adam.gersl@gmail.com
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